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RE: Interesting fact and interesting rumor



All,

I was told there would be no math in this job...

R/

Major Meridith L. Marshall
Senior Defense Counsel
MCAS, Miramar
858-577-1720 (desk line)
dsn 267-1720
858-997-8332 (government cell)
meridith.marshall@usmc.mil 

-----Original Message-----
From: Sullivan, Dwight H CIV USAF AFLOA/JAJA [mailto:Dwight.Sullivan@pentagon.af.mil] 
Sent: Friday, September 16, 2011 1:09 PM
To: Sripinyo, Kirk Major NAMARA, CODE 45; Puckett Neal
Cc: DHSULLIVAN@aol.com; babu_kaza@hotmail.com; haytham@puckettfaraj.com; Marshall Maj Meridith L; ksripinyo@yahoo.com
Subject: RE: Interesting fact and interesting rumor

I do get Maj Sip's joke, but to get serious on everyone for a second, as I
discussed with Neal, by far the most likely outcome of our most recent writ
appeal is a one-sentence denial without prejudice--though I counted within
that box the possibility of a one-sentence denial accompanied by a somewhat
longer concurring opinion by one or two judges.  I estimated the chance of a
one-sentence denial without prejudice as about 85 to 90%.  The next most
likely outcome, accounting for all but about 1% of the delta, is an oral
argument in the case.  The remaining 1% would be an order providing a more
thorough analysis of the writ appeal without oral argument.  I believe our
only chance of success (which is quite small) is through the oral argument
route.  I told Neal that an oral argument at which Judge Effron didn't
participate would be almost impossible for us to win.  But with the new news
about Judge Cox (if true), I no longer believe that is the case -- we could
potentially win with an Erdmann-Ryan-Cox majority.

Semper Fi,
DHS 

Dwight H. Sullivan
Acting Chief
Air Force Appellate Defense Division
(AFLOA/JAJA)
1500 West Perimeter Road, Suite 1100
Joint Base Andrews, MD 20762
240-612-4773
DSN:  612-4773
Fax:  240-612-5818  


-----Original Message-----
From: Sripinyo, Kirk Major NAMARA, CODE 45 [mailto:kirk.sripinyo@navy.mil] 
Sent: Friday, September 16, 2011 4:03 PM
To: Puckett Neal; Sullivan, Dwight H CIV USAF AFLOA/JAJA
Cc: DHSULLIVAN@aol.com; babu_kaza@hotmail.com; haytham@puckettfaraj.com;
meridith.marshall@usmc.mil; ksripinyo@yahoo.com
Subject: RE: Interesting fact and interesting rumor

Sir-

  I think Col Sullivan may be counting outcomes such as a two sentence
denial in that remaining 84%.  ;)

-Sip

-----Original Message-----
From: Puckett Neal [mailto:neal@puckettfaraj.com] 
Sent: Friday, September 16, 2011 15:48
To: Sullivan, Dwight H CIV USAF AFLOA/JAJA
Cc: DHSULLIVAN@aol.com; Sripinyo, Kirk Major NAMARA, CODE 45;
babu_kaza@hotmail.com; haytham@puckettfaraj.com; meridith.marshall@usmc.mil;
ksripinyo@yahoo.com
Subject: Re: Interesting fact and interesting rumor

I'll take 16%!

Neal A. Puckett, Esq
LtCol, USMC (Ret)
Puckett & Faraj, PC
1800 Diagonal Rd, Suite 210
Alexandria, VA 22314
703.706.9566
www.puckettfaraj.com
www.twitter.com/puckettfaraj


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On Sep 15, 2011, at 3:02 PM, Sullivan, Dwight H CIV USAF AFLOA/JAJA wrote:

Interesting fact:  As you've probably seen, the President  has nominated a
new judge for CAAF -- Kevin A. Ohlson, whose current job is heading DOJ's
professional misconduct review unit.  Not a bad place for a judge
considering the Wuterich case to be coming from.  (Of course, he probably
won't be confirmed anytime soon, so he probably won't be a player on our
writ appeal.  But in the event of a conviction and sentence qualifying for
appellate review -- which hopefully will not occur -- he might be a very
good judge on direct appeal.)

Interesting rumor:  I had previously heard that CAAF would operated as a
4-judge court until a new judge is seated.  But I've now heard a contrary
rumor that Senior Judge Walter T. Cox III will sit with the court until a
new judge is confirmed.  If that's true, I'm very happy.  Judge Cox comes
from an earlier era at CAAF, when doing justice was considered more
important than, say, rigidly enforcing a made-up filing deadline.  (Of
course, Chief Judge Effron was on the right side in that case, but
all-in-all, Judge Cox is likely to be less concerned with doctrinal matters
and more concerned with basic fairness than Chief Judge Effron is -- not a
slight against Chief Judge Effron, who is fabulous.)  So our odds just got a
little better.  Hell, we might now have a 16% chance of some outcome other
than a one-sentence denial without prejudice.  :- )

Semper Fi,
DHS


Dwight H. Sullivan
Acting Chief
Air Force Appellate Defense Division
(AFLOA/JAJA)
1500 West Perimeter Road, Suite 1100
Joint Base Andrews, MD 20762
240-612-4773
DSN:  612-4773
Fax:  240-612-5818  



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